NHC has the yellow crayon out. 20% chance of a tropical wave coming off Africa to develop in the next 5 days. No model support for any development. Just something to watch. The MJO pulse is favorable for convection in that area. But the dry air and dust is still there. Stay tuned. I’ll try and post some model runs and have some discussion on this later. #SELAWX
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa later this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some gradual development of this system while it moves westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic during the early to middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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