2023 Hurricane Season's First Yellow Spot

 It’s that time of year. First yellow crayon of the season. But this area has almost no chance of development and is not going to be a threat to anyone in the continental United States.

1. Southwestern Tropical Atlantic:

A surface trough interacting with an upper-level low is producing a

large area of disturbed weather extending a couple hundred miles

northeast of the Bahamas. Upper-level winds are expected to

increase later today and development of this system is not expected.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

 Colorado State University also issued its April Outlook Thursday morning. They forecast 13 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. 

New Year's Forecast

 Mild temps with some mid-level clouds. Could see the fog return so drive with caution. No rain. Here is the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Model for simulated radar and satellite.

 Happy Thanksgiving! Here is the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh modeling through Saturday morning. Looks like the bulk of the rain will pass through tonight. But expect showers to be out ahead of the big rain starting this afternoon.

 Here is the frost and freeze map for tomorrow morning. Also the feels like temps from this morning. Remember to protect people, and pets. Also, protect plants that may be susceptible to frost. #SELAWX

Colder than average temperatures till Nov 25th.

 Colder than average weather returns to Southeast Louisiana till November 25th. Then a warmer than average trend takes over.

Tropical Update 8/6/22

 

NHC has the yellow crayon out. 20% chance of a tropical wave coming off Africa to develop in the next 5 days. No  model support for any development. Just something to watch. The MJO pulse is favorable for convection in that area. But the dry air and dust is still there. Stay tuned. I’ll try and post some model runs and have some discussion on this later.  #SELAWX 

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

800 AM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: 

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa later this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some gradual development of this system while it moves westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic during the early to middle part of next week. 

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.