Tropical Update 8/6/22

 

NHC has the yellow crayon out. 20% chance of a tropical wave coming off Africa to develop in the next 5 days. No  model support for any development. Just something to watch. The MJO pulse is favorable for convection in that area. But the dry air and dust is still there. Stay tuned. I’ll try and post some model runs and have some discussion on this later.  #SELAWX 

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

800 AM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: 

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa later this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some gradual development of this system while it moves westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic during the early to middle part of next week. 

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

More Of The Same 07/29/22

 Summer continues with the hot and muggy conditions with chances of showers and storms especially in the afternoon. @SELAWX

Typical Summer Pattern Continues

 Typical Summer time pattern. Temps will be near average with lows in the 70s and highs in the lower to middle 90s, and there will be scattered showers and storms popping up from the late morning into the early evening hours tomorrow. #SELAWX

7/22/22 Showers and HRRR Model

 This afternoon's showers on the satellite video with radar overlay and the HRRR model through tomorrow afternoon. Showing clouds and simulated radar

Heat Advisory 7/20/22

 A Heat Advisory in effect from 11AM to 7PM CDT. A passing shower or storm could bring temporary relief but won't be much. Take precautions if you plan to be outdoors for an extended period. Drink lots of water and take frequent cool down breaks. Check on the elderly.

 All Clear!

 

Rainmaker for the Northern Gulf Coast

 NHC has the Northern Gulf highlighted for potential tropical development of 30% in the next 5 days. Regardless of cyclonic formation there is an increased rain chance associated with this stalled out frontal system. So here is the model estimated total rainfall for the next 5 days. EURO and GFS. #SELAWX

EURO 5 Day Rain Totals

GFS 5 Day Rain Totals