New Year's Forecast

 Mild temps with some mid-level clouds. Could see the fog return so drive with caution. No rain. Here is the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Model for simulated radar and satellite.

 Happy Thanksgiving! Here is the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh modeling through Saturday morning. Looks like the bulk of the rain will pass through tonight. But expect showers to be out ahead of the big rain starting this afternoon.

 Here is the frost and freeze map for tomorrow morning. Also the feels like temps from this morning. Remember to protect people, and pets. Also, protect plants that may be susceptible to frost. #SELAWX

Colder than average temperatures till Nov 25th.

 Colder than average weather returns to Southeast Louisiana till November 25th. Then a warmer than average trend takes over.

Tropical Update 8/6/22

 

NHC has the yellow crayon out. 20% chance of a tropical wave coming off Africa to develop in the next 5 days. No  model support for any development. Just something to watch. The MJO pulse is favorable for convection in that area. But the dry air and dust is still there. Stay tuned. I’ll try and post some model runs and have some discussion on this later.  #SELAWX 

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

800 AM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: 

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa later this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some gradual development of this system while it moves westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic during the early to middle part of next week. 

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

More Of The Same 07/29/22

 Summer continues with the hot and muggy conditions with chances of showers and storms especially in the afternoon. @SELAWX

Typical Summer Pattern Continues

 Typical Summer time pattern. Temps will be near average with lows in the 70s and highs in the lower to middle 90s, and there will be scattered showers and storms popping up from the late morning into the early evening hours tomorrow. #SELAWX

7/22/22 Showers and HRRR Model

 This afternoon's showers on the satellite video with radar overlay and the HRRR model through tomorrow afternoon. Showing clouds and simulated radar

Heat Advisory 7/20/22

 A Heat Advisory in effect from 11AM to 7PM CDT. A passing shower or storm could bring temporary relief but won't be much. Take precautions if you plan to be outdoors for an extended period. Drink lots of water and take frequent cool down breaks. Check on the elderly.

 All Clear!

 

Rainmaker for the Northern Gulf Coast

 NHC has the Northern Gulf highlighted for potential tropical development of 30% in the next 5 days. Regardless of cyclonic formation there is an increased rain chance associated with this stalled out frontal system. So here is the model estimated total rainfall for the next 5 days. EURO and GFS. #SELAWX

EURO 5 Day Rain Totals

GFS 5 Day Rain Totals

Upper Gulf Development Possible

 Computer model runs are starting to consistently sniff out a North Gulf Low pressure forming in about the 7 days' time frame. July 17-18ish. It doesn’t look like much more than a rain maker. So, all interest from the upper Texas coast to the central Florida panhandle need to watch this closely. GFS, EURO, and the ICON are all in agreement. 

EURO

GFS

ICON

GEFS Ensemble

EURO Ensemble

Wide Variety of Weather This Weekend

A wide array of weather conditions will be possible as we move into the weekend.  The heat will be on, with temperatures climbing well into the 90s each day.  Heat index values will be above 105 and could climb as high as 108 during the afternoon hours today.  Tomorrow, a marginal risk of severe weather will be in place for most of the northern part of our area followed by a marginal risk of excessive rainfall on Sunday.  Stay weather aware this weekend!

Saturday has a Marginal Risk of Severe Weather in Our Northeastern corner of Southeast Louisiana.

 

Afternoon Showers and Chance For Severe Weather

 

The showers are moving up from the Gulf. Warm moist tropical air. Some could be locally heavy with the possibility of localized flooding, street flooding, and ponding on highways. Some could produce waterspouts. I've been seeing a lot of those the last few days. Stay weather aware and drive safely.

Whitney

#SELAWX

Today’s Chance For Severe Weather

While it’s all clear in the tropics. There is a chance for severe weather today here in Southeast Louisiana. Some areas could see locally heavy thunder storms. Localized flooding is the biggest risk today. #SELAWX

 

Afternoon Shower Starting Early. Tropics Are All Clear.

 A few showers have popped up. Could see more with some locally heavy. Hopefully they keep things cool and clear out for a nice cool evening. 

Tropics are all clear as we move into an unfavorable MJO phase that has convection suppressed. 

Afternoon Thunderstorms

Afternoon thunderstorms pulling up from the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. Stay weather aware. Some could produce local street flooding and impaired driving conditions. Stay safe.

It’s Hot Out There!

 It’s hot out there today. Take heat precautions. Drink plenty fluids and take frequent breaks. #SELAWX

Tropical Storm Colin Forms

5am EDT 2 July -- Overnight surface obs, satellite, & radar data indicated Tropical Storm #Colin developed with 40 mph winds. TS Warnings have been issued for parts of the South & North Carolina coasts as the storm moves NE along the shore this weekend.

Here are the latest Spaghetti model plots.

Here is the Radar and Satellite Data

Most of the storms are on the East side of the center. Heavy shear is pushing them off to the East side. But some rain and possibility of flooding can occur. High surf and beach erosion is the biggest threat right now as Colin moves off to the Northeast.
 

Enjoy your Saturday.

New Invest 96L /Texas Invest 95L Is No More / TS Bonnie Making Landfall

 Surprise! Or not. The blob I was watching off the Carolina coast has gotten the attention of the NHC which has now designated it Invest 96L. Nothing more than a blobby rain maker. So, watch out if you're in Georgia and the Carolina's, Flooding rains are a possibility.

Here are the models for Invest 96L

INVEST 95L Is No More

That's right. It's moved ashore and is headed North from the Texas coast. A big sloppy rainmaker for Louisiana, Mississippi and point farther North. 

TS Bonnie Moving Ashore 

TS Bonnie is making land fall down along the Costa Rica/Nicaraguan Eastern coast. Winds 40 MPH and she's moving fast. 20mph. Weak Tropical Storm. Pressure is 1005mb.

Will she remain intact and make the cross over to the Pacific? We will see. So, stay tuned.

Peace Out!

Whitney

PTC2 upgraded to TS Bonnie

 

Here is a view of the Costa Rican weather radar

Flash Fload Warning Tangipahoa Parish

 Flash Flood Warning Tangipahoa Parish including Greensburg LA, Montpelier LA and  Pine Grove LA until 6:45 PM CDT

Flash Flood Warning Issued for St Charles Parish.

Flash Flood Warning including Laplace LA, Luling LA and  Destrehan LA until 5:15 PM CDT
 

Flash Flood Warning for New Orleans

 Flash Flood Warning issued for New Orleans metro area. High rainfall rates in Metairie, Gretna and the CBD being reported. #SELAWX

USAF Hurricane Hunters enroute to INVEST 95L

 

USAF Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is headed back to the Western Gulf to update us on Invest 95L. Still looks like just an area of low pressure. I don't think the winds will support any upgrading of status. But we will see what they find. #SELAWX

PTC2 6/30/2022 UPDATE

 

Two hurricane hunter aircraft are enroute to PTC2. They will once again be looking for signs of a closed circulation. Winds are still at 40mph and it's still moving fast off to the West at 20mph. so any rapid strengthening is still out of the question.