Tuesday, June 27, 2023

Tropical Update 6/27/2023

 



Tropics are quit for the next 7 days Except of the remnants of Cindy. But that's a low chance for development and no threat to the continental U.S. Interests in on the island of Bermuda should pay close attention and heed all warning and watches.
An area of low pressure, associated with the remnants of Cindy, is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms more than 400 miles
to the south of Bermuda. While strong upper-level winds are expected
to prevent redevelopment of this system over the day or so,
environmental conditions could become marginally conducive for some
gradual development during the latter part of this week. The system
is forecast to move generally northward over the western Atlantic,
passing near Bermuda on Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

HEAT WARNINGS!

 HEAT WARNINGS! Take all precautions.










Tuesday, June 20, 2023

Serious Convection Over SE Louisiana

 Some serious convection over Southeast Louisiana tonight. Look at that serious outflow and lightning. #lightning #convection #SELAWX #LAWX #weather



Tropical Storm Bret

 At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bret was

located near latitude 12.2 North, longitude 48.6 West.  Bret is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general 
motion is expected to continue for the next several days.  On the 
forecast track, the center of Bret is expected move across portions 
of the Lesser Antilles Thursday afternoon and Thursday night, and 
then move across the eastern Caribbean Sea on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast during the 
next day or so, and Bret is expected to be a tropical storm when it 
reaches the Lesser Antilles Thursday and Thursday night.


Tropical Storm Bret Looking Sloppy This Morning

 Visible Satellite Images and the Microwave Images of Tropical Storm Bret's core. Tropical Storm Bret is looking sloppy this morning with an exposed core well away from the convection. It appears that the system has encountered some shearing as the lower circulation has out run the mid level circulation leaving us with an unsymmetrical system. This is a less than favorable developmental scenario as evident on the computer modeling with most models now plotting a weaker system that stays South and continues West across the Southern Caribbean. If this trend continues Bret will be no threat to the Continental United States. If this continues Bret will surely by torn apart in the Southern Caribbean as conditions are hostile to any tropical cyclone formation there. #SELAWX #Tropical #Weather #Bret #92L




Sticky Cold Front 6/20/23

 Sticky cold front is stuck over Southeast Louisiana. So it’ll be a cloudy day and a little less obnoxiously hot. Although some areas could get the sun and a heat advisory is in affect. With the similar unstable atmosphere as last night we could see the same sort of rain setup as yeasterday evening. We have a slight risk for severe weather. Torrential training downpours with 60MPH winds, massive lightning, hail and localized flooding. So there is also a flash flood watch in affect.






Monday, June 19, 2023

92L Becomes Tropical Depression 3

Invest 92L became Tropical Depression 3 this morning. Which means we get a cone now. Here is the latest info from the NHC.

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032023
1100 AM AST Mon Jun 19 2023

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THIS SYSTEM...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.0N 40.3W
ABOUT 1425 MI...2295 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of 
this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three
was located near latitude 11.0 North, longitude 40.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue for the next several days.  On the 
forecast track, the system should be approaching the Lesser 
Antilles late this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast, and the depression is forecast to 
become a hurricane in a few days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header 
WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.





Sunday, June 18, 2023

06/18/23 92L Update

 92L remains a loosely organized cluster of convection centered around a broad circulation around an open wave axis. Today we see more convective bursting as it’s over very warm water. Although, as we see in the water vapor loop there is considerable dry are for it to navigate and what’s the blob behind it. We may get another yellow crayon from the NHC soon.





New Area of Concern in the Caribbean Sea North of Panama

 Just a little something, something that the GFS has sniffed out. Could this become Bret before 92L becomes Bret? Stay tuned. We will know more in about 72 hours. Is it computer garbage? Does the GFS know something the other models don't? Only time will tell. Till then stay vigilant.







Saturday, June 17, 2023

Lots of Convection

 92L going through some serious convective bursting tonight! 



6/17/23 Tropical Discussion

 Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92): A tropical wave extends along 

27W, from 05N to 14N, moving W at 15-20 kt, with a broad 1011 mb 
low just east of the wave axis 10N27W. Scattered moderate 
convection is observed from 08N to 10N between 25W and 30W. 
Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional 
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the 
early to middle portion of next week while the system moves 
westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical 
Atlantic. The is a medium (50%) chance of tropical cyclone 
development over the next 48 hours, and a high (70%) chance of 
development through the next seven days. Please refer to the 
latest Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov, for more 
details.


Friday, June 16, 2023

Invest 92L

 Spaghetti Plots for now Invest 92L







Good News In The Tropics

 Good model agreement this morning from the GFS and the EURO that this wave off Africa stays out to sea and development is slow and not any chance of it rapidly intensifying. Just something to watch. Nothing to worry about. 😎




Thursday, June 15, 2023

Tropical Uodate

 Eastern Tropical Atlantic:

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa 
tonight and early Friday.  Environmental conditions are expected to 
be conducive for gradual development of this system while it moves 
generally westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the 
eastern and central tropical Atlantic during the early to middle 
part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


DANGEROUS HEAT and POSSIBILTY OF SEVERE WEATHER

 DANGEROUS HEAT and POSSIBILTY OF SEVERE WEATHER. Sounds like a broken record or the back of the shampoo bottle. Wash, Rinse, Repeat. Take heat precautions. Stay weather aware and heed all warnings. #SELAWX







Monday, June 12, 2023

All Clear in the Tropics

 All Clear. No development expected for the next seven days.



Severe Weather Threat

 Just a reminder that there is a chance for severe weather today in Southeast Louisiana. Mostly wind and hail threat.






Sunday, June 11, 2023

Heat Index DANGER ⚠️

 Heat Index is 109 here in Luling. That puts us in the danger zone ⚠️ 

Time to take heat precautions. Take breaks, cool down in the shade and Air Conditioning. Drink lots of water. Also don’t leave your pets outside. They can die from heat stroke too. Stay safe! Here is the Today, Tonight, and Monday forecast. As well as tomorrow’s weather map. #SELAWX








Friday, June 9, 2023

It’s going to be HOT

 It’ll be HOT! Today, tonight and Saturday. Also chance for severe storms on Saturday. Stay weather aware. #SELAWX






  The rain has mostly moved out of SE LA with only some lingering showers remaining. There is still the chances for locally heavy rain and s...