Three Day Forecast

 Three day forecast and the coastal flood advisory. Unfortunately the little rain we’ve gotten has not put a dent in the drought. Nor has it done anything to help put out the marsh fires burning underground.

Rain Rain Rain

 It’s going to be rainy for a few days. It’ll clear out Wednesday. Drive safe! #SELAWX

Storms Diving South

 9/7/23 5:25pm Storms diving South across the area with a cold front. Local flooding a possibility. Stay weather aware! #SELAWX

RAPID INTENSIFICATION SCENARIO!

 RAPID INTENSIFICATION SCENARIO! The hurricane specific models had locked on with the formation of a center of circulation and it’s not good. We will see a CAT3 or 4 major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico making landfall on the Florida panhandle. Those in the path of this storm make your evacuation plans now. Have a place to go. You have till Tuesday. This is going to be a killer storm. #SELAWX

Invest 93L

 Our Red Crayon area has now been designated INVEST 93L. So we are now getting spaghetti plots. Remember there is no center for the models to lock in on so the plots will change. There is some meandering forecast over and around the Yucatan for the next couple of days. So do not rely on the lines of the plots yet. The area of concern, is the upper and Eastern Gulf Coast from central Louisiana to Miami. This includes the entire West coast of Florida and the Keys. Of course an upper Gulf Coast landfall could be catastrophic as there is the chance for rapid intensification. While it is more likely to be a minimal hurricane. PLEASE MAKE PLANS FOR EVACUATION! Have some where to go. Listen to your local officials for guidance. With that said. Here is the latest from the NHC. Also the EURO ensembles, Operational Intensification Plots, GFS Ensembles, and the Operational Mosaic. We should have more hurricane specific modeling out shortly. #SELAWX

Gulf of Mexico Watch

 IMPORTANT UPDATE: Orange area in the Gulf of Mexico by the beginning of next week. For those that are saying this is only going to be a Tropical Storm. The possibility of a rapid intensification scenario does exist in the Gulf of Mexico as water temperatures are very hot. Although unlikely it’s still a possibility. This is going to happen fast and everyone needs to be prepared. Model guidance is hinting at a Florida peninsula landfall. But upper Gulf is not eliminated yet. It’s just to early to tell. Once a center forms we will have much better consistency on guidance. But then we will only have a few days, if that. So everyone on the Gulf coast need to have a plan. Also the Atlantic East coast as some models have a Keys, Homestead, Miami component to the predicted path. #SELAWX 

Keeping an Eye on the Gulf

 We need to watch the CAG (Central America. Gyre) for a pull up of a Low pressure system. The ensembles are hinting at tropical cyclonic development in the Bay of Campeche, Yucatan, Western Caribbean area. Here are the blended composite models NCEP. They combine EURO , CMC ensembles, Also the EURO and GFS ensembles. 5 to 10 days out.

#SELAWX

Tropics Are Heating Up

 The Tropics are heating up and so is SE Louisiana. Excessive Heat Warnings are in effect for most of SELA. In the tropical Atlantic we are watching 3 tropical waves for development. All three have invest status now. 98L, 99L, 90L. Then there is a wave entering the Gulf of Mexico and will bring rain to Florida and SE Texas. Some model support for it to spin up just before landfall to a TD or minimal TS in SE Texas. 98L is going to spin off into the Atlantic and may get the Emily name as it is already looking like a TD. 99L could bring rain to the Northern Lesser Antilles and 90L could bring rain to the Lesser Antilles and Hispaniola as it enters the Caribbean and turns North. Try to Stay Cool!

Tropical Wave

This weekend we have a tropical wave that will enter the GOM. It’s predicted to be moving fast and not have time to develop much. Current predictions have it at a strong tropical depression or minimal tropical storm strength at landfall in East Texas. This is mostly a rain event for South Florida and Southeast Texas. Here are the EURO and GFS ensemble models. Be sure to stay weather aware. #SELAWX

 

Keeping an Eye onThis

 NHC is highlighting this area with a 20% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the 7 day forecast. It has little model support but we will just have to wait and see. The MJO will be coming back into a favorable phase over the Atlantic ITCZ. Aug 16 - Sept 10. The SAL will be weakening as well. So it could be on like Donkey Kong. 

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

200 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:

A broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop during the 

middle part of this week over the far eastern Atlantic between the 

Cabo Verde Islands and the west coast of Africa. Some slow 

development of this system is possible later this week as it moves 

west-northwestward or northwestward across the eastern Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Possible Tropical Development 7/17/23

 The Ensemble Models are indicating a strong possibility of cyclonic development in about 5 days as a strong tropical wave is coming off the African continent into the Eastern Atlantic. While there is a good model signature for possible development. There is less support for it holding together in the 5 to 10 day. So we may see the NHC yellow crayon for this area soon. But at this point it’s just an area to watch.  #SELAWX

Heat AdvisoryWeekend Weather

 7/15/23

Heat Warning 7/14/23

 A heat advisory is in effect on Friday from 10 AM to 8 PM. Dangerous heat index values from 108 to 112 are expected in southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi. Take frequent breaks in the shade or air conditioning, drink plenty of water, even if not thirsty, check on elderly, ill neighbors and family members, bring pets indoors or provide shade and plenty of water.

Tropical Update 7/10/2023

An area of low pressure is expected to form in a day or so several 
hundred miles to the east-northeast of Bermuda. This system is 
expected to interact with an upper-level trough, and could acquire 
some subtropical or tropical characteristics during the middle to 
latter part of this week while it moves generally eastward. By the 
weekend, the low should turn northward bringing the system over 
cooler waters, likely limiting additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

This weekend's weather. Current radar 12:29PM 7/8/2023

 

Excessive Heat Warning Again! 7/1/2023

 Excessive Heat Warning is in effect from 10 AM to 8 PM on Saturday. High temperatures will climb to near 100 degrees during the afternoon, and this will push heat index values to between 113 and 117 degrees. Stay hydrated and limit time outdoors to reduce exposure to the heat.

Tropical Update 6/27/2023

 

Tropics are quit for the next 7 days Except of the remnants of Cindy. But that's a low chance for development and no threat to the continental U.S. Interests in on the island of Bermuda should pay close attention and heed all warning and watches.

An area of low pressure, associated with the remnants of Cindy, is

producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms more than 400 miles

to the south of Bermuda. While strong upper-level winds are expected

to prevent redevelopment of this system over the day or so,

environmental conditions could become marginally conducive for some

gradual development during the latter part of this week. The system

is forecast to move generally northward over the western Atlantic,

passing near Bermuda on Thursday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

HEAT WARNINGS!

 HEAT WARNINGS! Take all precautions.

Two Storms in June

 

Serious Convection Over SE Louisiana

 Some serious convection over Southeast Louisiana tonight. Look at that serious outflow and lightning. #lightning #convection #SELAWX #LAWX #weather

Tropical Storm Bret

 At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bret was

located near latitude 12.2 North, longitude 48.6 West.  Bret is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general 
motion is expected to continue for the next several days.  On the 
forecast track, the center of Bret is expected move across portions 
of the Lesser Antilles Thursday afternoon and Thursday night, and 
then move across the eastern Caribbean Sea on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast during the 
next day or so, and Bret is expected to be a tropical storm when it 
reaches the Lesser Antilles Thursday and Thursday night.