RAPID INTENSIFICATION SCENARIO! The hurricane specific models had locked on with the formation of a center of circulation and it’s not good. We will see a CAT3 or 4 major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico making landfall on the Florida panhandle. Those in the path of this storm make your evacuation plans now. Have a place to go. You have till Tuesday. This is going to be a killer storm. #SELAWX
Our Red Crayon area has now been designated INVEST 93L. So we are now getting spaghetti plots. Remember there is no center for the models to lock in on so the plots will change. There is some meandering forecast over and around the Yucatan for the next couple of days. So do not rely on the lines of the plots yet. The area of concern, is the upper and Eastern Gulf Coast from central Louisiana to Miami. This includes the entire West coast of Florida and the Keys. Of course an upper Gulf Coast landfall could be catastrophic as there is the chance for rapid intensification. While it is more likely to be a minimal hurricane. PLEASE MAKE PLANS FOR EVACUATION! Have some where to go. Listen to your local officials for guidance. With that said. Here is the latest from the NHC. Also the EURO ensembles, Operational Intensification Plots, GFS Ensembles, and the Operational Mosaic. We should have more hurricane specific modeling out shortly. #SELAWX
IMPORTANT UPDATE: Orange area in the Gulf of Mexico by the beginning of next week. For those that are saying this is only going to be a Tropical Storm. The possibility of a rapid intensification scenario does exist in the Gulf of Mexico as water temperatures are very hot. Although unlikely it’s still a possibility. This is going to happen fast and everyone needs to be prepared. Model guidance is hinting at a Florida peninsula landfall. But upper Gulf is not eliminated yet. It’s just to early to tell. Once a center forms we will have much better consistency on guidance. But then we will only have a few days, if that. So everyone on the Gulf coast need to have a plan. Also the Atlantic East coast as some models have a Keys, Homestead, Miami component to the predicted path. #SELAWX
We need to watch the CAG (Central America. Gyre) for a pull up of a Low pressure system. The ensembles are hinting at tropical cyclonic development in the Bay of Campeche, Yucatan, Western Caribbean area. Here are the blended composite models NCEP. They combine EURO , CMC ensembles, Also the EURO and GFS ensembles. 5 to 10 days out.
#SELAWX
The Tropics are heating up and so is SE Louisiana. Excessive Heat Warnings are in effect for most of SELA. In the tropical Atlantic we are watching 3 tropical waves for development. All three have invest status now. 98L, 99L, 90L. Then there is a wave entering the Gulf of Mexico and will bring rain to Florida and SE Texas. Some model support for it to spin up just before landfall to a TD or minimal TS in SE Texas. 98L is going to spin off into the Atlantic and may get the Emily name as it is already looking like a TD. 99L could bring rain to the Northern Lesser Antilles and 90L could bring rain to the Lesser Antilles and Hispaniola as it enters the Caribbean and turns North. Try to Stay Cool!
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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop during the
middle part of this week over the far eastern Atlantic between the
Cabo Verde Islands and the west coast of Africa. Some slow
development of this system is possible later this week as it moves
west-northwestward or northwestward across the eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
Three day forecast and the coastal flood advisory. Unfortunately the little rain we’ve gotten has not put a dent in the drought. Nor has i...
